Sensitivity analysis of an ecological model applied to the Ria de Aveiro

Abstract

Ecological models can be useful tools for understanding the dynamics of the estuarine and coastal ecosystems. However, the application of these models in real systems requires the specification of many empirical input parameters, which are in general difficult to quantify for a specific site. This study presents a sensitivity analysis on the input parameters of the model ECO-SELFE applied to the Ria de Aveiro. ECO-SELFE is a threedimensional, unstructured grid, fully-coupled hydrodynamic-ecological model. The sensitivity analysis is based on a previous analysis using the zero-dimensional ecological model, where one parameter was varied with the others being held constant. Results show that phytoplankton growth rate and zooplankton excretion and mortality rates are the parameters that influence the results the most. The degree of influence of these parameters depends on the local concentrations of zooplankton and phytoplankton. These two ecological variables are also most affected by the variations in the input parameters.