Long Term Field Assessment of EC2 and MC 2020 Models for Creep and Shrinkage

Abstract

Accurate prediction of concrete creep and shrinkage remains challenging owing to the significant variability of influencing parameters, particularly environmental factors such as temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall. Reliable prediction of these time-dependent phenomena is essential for modelling the long-term behaviour of concrete structures. Over recent decades, prediction models have undergone successive refinements, culminating in the fib Model Code 2020 and the forthcoming second generation of Eurocode 2, scheduled for implementation in 2027. This study assesses the predictive capability of these models using long-term experimental results obtained over more than 15 years from 45 shrinkage and 13 creep specimens installed on a reinforced concrete bridge over the Douro River, in Portugal. The comparison between measured and predicted values provides insight into the models’ accuracy and suitability for representing the behaviour of concrete under real environmental exposure conditions.