Operational Inundation and Water Quality Forecasting in Transitional Waters: Lessons from the Tagus Estuary, Portugal

Abstract

This study presents the implementation and evaluation of a high-resolution operational forecasting system for the Tagus estuary (Portugal), focusing on inundation and water quality predictions to support estuarine management. Developed using the relocatable Water Information Forecast Framework (WIFF), the system integrates two implementations of SCHISM: a 2D barotropic model including wave–current interactions for flood-prone areas, and a 3D baroclinic model simulating salinity, temperature, and biogeochemical variables. Forecasts were assessed over six months using in situ and satellite near real-time observations. Results show that the operational models represent well water levels, waves, salinity, temperature, and water quality dynamics. Compared to a regional model, the local forecast system generally offers improved accuracy within the estuary due to higher spatial resolution and better representation of local dynamics. Several challenges remain, including uncertainties in oceanic and riverine boundary conditions and limited high-resolution near real-time observations to continuously assess and improve operational models. Furthermore, the absence of operational two-way coupling between regional and local models limits cross-scale integration of physical and biogeochemical processes. The forecasting system for the Tagus estuary demonstrates the potential of local high-resolution operational models as reliable, user-oriented tools for managing transitional water systems, and as core elements for coastal management.