Abstract:
This study assesses wave overtopping and ship maneuvering risks at Aveiro and Figueira
da Foz ports, driven by climate change, namely sea level rise. The analysis is based on
offshore wave hindcast data from the ECMWF database, covering a period from 1979 to
present. Wave regimes are identified through statistical analysis of significant wave
height, period, and direction for the years 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100. These conditions,
together with sea level rise projections, are downscaled using numerical wave
propagation model SWAN, forcing NN_OVERTOPPING2 neural network to estimate
mean overtopping discharge based on the local wave conditions, sea level and structural
parameters. Ship manoeuvring safety will be analysed using the radiation/diffraction
panel numerical model WAMIT, for linear analysis of surface waves interaction with
floating structures. Maximum ship motions amplitudes along the navigation channel of
each port will be computed, for the predicted local wave conditions and sea levels,
allowing to establish new operating conditions. Following existing thresholds for
admissible risk (overtopping and ship motions), risk levels changes from present to 2100
will be assessed. These results will enable the development of adaptive design and
warning strategies. The proposed methodology supports effective risk assessment and can
be applied to other coastal infrastructures and navigating channels.
