Data-centric models for the sustainable development of the multimodal Sines-Madrid transport corridor.

Abstract

The multimodal freight transport planning on strategic transnational corridors often neglects critical sustainability criteria. This observation is corroborated by the generalized lack of optimization principles for the carbon-aware allocation of transport modes. This work introduces a prospective study of freight transport along the Sines-Madrid multimodal transport corridor, proposing data-centric models to guide its sustainable growth. The Sines-Madrid corridor represents a critical section in the Trans-European Transport Network Atlantic Rail Freight Corridor. The research explores road-rail transport scenarios until 2030 by: i) consolidating data provided by the Port of Sines and other institutional statistical sources, such as Eurostat, for modelling freight transport.; ii) developing uncertainty-aware time series models to analyze freight trends and forecast demand for road and rail modes in the corridor; and iii) conducting a sensitive analysis of various scenarios for freight transport, namely increasing rail-to-road split ratios to reduce carbon emissions, and their potential impacts. The acquired results from the proposed scenario-based modelling offer stakeholders insights to promote sustainable freight transport strategies. The 2030 horizon is selected to align with the European Union’s (EU) climate and transport goals. The explored scenarios account for the impact of road and rail modal split, as well as road fleet configurations, on emissions and costs. These findings, conducted in the context of the Advanced Multimodal Marketplace for Low Emission and Energy Transportation (ADMIRAL) project, provide a blueprint for similar corridors, guiding EU policy and investment toward sustainable transport solutions.