Mapping inundation of estuarine margins driven by ocean and fluvial forcings

Abstract

Inundation maps are required for spatial planning. This paper describes the generation of inundation maps for the margins of the upstream region of the Tagus estuary (Portugal). Maps are constructed separately for a major river flood (the February 1979 flood) and an extreme storm surge (the February 1941 cyclone), both with return periods on the order of 100 years. All the relevant forcings are considered in the model simulations, including tides, river flow, wind, atmospheric pressure and surface waves. The dykes that protect the margins are explicitly considered by placing a row of grid nodes along their crests. The impact of sea level rise is also assessed.