National seismic risk assessment: an overview and practical guide.

Abstract

In order to promote an effective approach to the prevention of and preparedness for disasters, the countries participating in the Union Civil Protection Mechanism (UCPM) shall develop risk assessments, risk management capability assessments and disaster risk management planning at national or appropriate sub-national level. The European Commission is providing scientific support to the countries participating in the UCPM, publishing updated guidelines to facilitate the development of their National Risk Assessments (NRAs). Earthquake is among the most common hazards considered in NRAs prepared by the countries participating in the UCPM. Indeed, in 2018 NRAs, more than 20 countries performed risk assessment for earthquakes, and some considered cross-border and cascading effects, such as tsunami, landslides, disruption of infrastructure and industrial accidents. This paper surveys and summarises the current state of research that can be utilized for national seismic risk assessment. It aims to facilitate the development of consistent NRAs with respect to earthquakes and ensure their utility in seismic risk management planning. It also aims to support the use of the new reporting guidelines on disaster risk management among countries participating in the UCPM. The seismic risk assessment process is described as outlined in ISO 31000: 2018. A wealth of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and damage-to-loss models, methodologies and tools are presented to serve the purpose of conducting national seismic risk assessment. References to relevant European research projects, good practices, and software to support the assessment are also provided.