Abstract:
Estuaries are coastal systems particularly vulnerable
to climate change. Within these systems, agriculture
is one of the most potentially affected sectors. This paper
proposes a risk assessment approach for helping the
decision-making process at a local level, addressing two risks
that affect agricultural areas located in estuarine margins:
the unavailability of freshwater for irrigation resulting from
the upstream propagation of estuarine brackish water during
droughts and land inundation by high water levels associated
with high tides and storm surges. For each risk,
quantitative consequence descriptors are proposed to support
risk level determination and evaluation through a continuous
consequence–probability diagram. The approach applicability
is discussed through its application to the Lezíria Grande
de Vila Franca de Xira, located in the Tagus Estuary (Portugal).
Results indicate that the approach is appropriate to
support risk owners in taking actions to mitigate the risk. Examples
of risk control measures for the risks addressed are
presented. The main strengths of the proposed approach are
its flexibility to be adapted to local conditions and updated
through time, as well as the ease of its application by the risk owner
