Determination of Extreme Sea Levels along the Portuguese Coas t

Abstract

Abstract: This work aims at determining extreme water levels associ ated with different return periods through the development and application of a circulation mo del for tides and surges. The model covers a large portion of the NE Atlantic, and has a res olution of 250 m in the Portuguese shelf. The model was extensively validated for tides, surges and extreme s ea levels. In the Portuguese shelf, RMS errors of tides are of the order of 5 cm, and the mo del under-estimates extreme water levels by about 10 cm. Simulation of water levels between 1979 and 2010, followed by a statistical analysis of the results, provided the relation between return perio ds and extreme levels along the Portuguese coast. Results reveal the growth of extreme water level s from south to north.