Abstract:
This paper summarizes the results of the bibliographic study on accident prediction
models applied to urban areas. Several types of models where analyzed, namely for
accidents involving pedestrians or cyclists, collisions between motorized vehicles, total
accidents, non injury accidents, accidents with fatalities, injury accidents, night time
accidents and accidents involving only vehicles. Models with different levels of
disagregation were also studied: aggregated models describe general safety trends
(national or regional); disaggregated models represent specific changes in the
transportation system.
This study is part of the “IRUMS – Safer Roads in Urban Areas” project, carried out at
the National Laboratory of Civil Engineering and at the Department of Engineering of
the University of Coimbra, financed by the Foundation for Science and Technology.
This project intends to develop methods for safety management of urban road networks.
Procedures for the estimation of expected accident frequencies, identification of sites
with a promise and selection of efficient corrective measures are being developed as
well. The case study is being applied in Lisbon.
