Design earthquake estimates for dam sites: methods and considerations

Abstract

The methodologies to be used in the seismological studies to characterize the Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) are not very well established. In this paper some progress and considerations about common methodologies presently used to assess the seismic input parameters are discussed. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and deterministic seismic analysis using attenuation laws (ground motion prediction equations - GMPEqs) are widely used approaches. However, there are significant disadvantages in their use namely: (i) the MCE is not considered a finite source and (ii) the applicability of GMPEqs for magnitudes and distance of interest is sometimes uncertain. Being so, the definition of the MCE could be based on finite-fault modelling (FFM), which allows reproducing effects that influence amplitudes, frequency content and duration of ground motion. In this paper, the FFM is applied to assess MCE for some Portuguese large dams and it is emphasized its feasibility to synthesize ground motion at a dam site.